NBA Finals Preview
Some people have reduced it to this: Miami has two stars (Shaq and Wade) and Dallas has one (Dirk), so the Heat will win. Whatever. Interestingly, the playoffs stats for Shaq /Wade vs. Dirk/Josh Howard are a draw. The points are virtually identical, Shaq/Wade have more assists and a slightly better shooting percentage, but Dirk/Howard have more rebounds and fewer turnovers. No, I'm not saying that Howard is a star player, but I am certainly suggesting that Shaq isn't the player he was several years ago.
This series reminds of the Mavs-Spurs match up. Similar to the Spurs, the Heat have a couple of stars and a bunch of old role players. I believe though that the Spurs matched up better against Dallas than the Heat do. And the Spurs were the one team I didn't think that Dallas would beat.
Duncan (a more skilled yet less physically imposing player than Shaq) put up 32 points and 13 rebounds a game against the Mavs. Shaq will not be able to match that, if for no other reason than he doesn't have the stamina he had four years ago. In addition, as strangely as it would have seemed 3 years ago when the Mavs featured a center rotation of Shawn Bradley and Raef Lafrentz, with Dampier and Diop the Mavs are actually one of the best equipped teams to guard Shaq. I look for Shaq to average 24 points and 9 rebounds this series, which won't be enough for the Heat to win.
Wade is a great player, but he and whoever the Heat's third option is on any given day, are not as good as the combination of Ginobili and Parker that the Spurs threw at the Mavs. Look for Dallas to rotate fresh defenders on Wade (Howard, Griffin, Harris, possibly others), and to try to him force to be a jump shooter. The Mavs have the personnel to partially contain the Heat's two stars, or at least to make them work hard.
The key will be if the Heat's older role players (Payton, Walker, Morning) will do better than the Spurs veteran role players, whom the Mavs simply ran off the floor. They'd almost have to do better than Finley, Van Excel, and Horry did against the Mavs, but unless Payton suddenly regains his athleticism of 4 or 5 years ago, they won't be able to do enough.
Unlike the Spurs, who had Bowen (or the Suns with Marion and the Grizzles with Battier) the Heat have no one rumored to be a Dirk-stopper. Dirk should be able to have his biggest series of the playoffs. The media is saying that Haslem will guard Dirk, but they're likely to try Posey on him as well. Dirk should be able to dominate either one, and the Heat shouldn't even have an average defender left to guard Howard.
Mavs in 6.
Technorati tags: Dallas Mavericks Basketball NBA Dirk
This series reminds of the Mavs-Spurs match up. Similar to the Spurs, the Heat have a couple of stars and a bunch of old role players. I believe though that the Spurs matched up better against Dallas than the Heat do. And the Spurs were the one team I didn't think that Dallas would beat.
Duncan (a more skilled yet less physically imposing player than Shaq) put up 32 points and 13 rebounds a game against the Mavs. Shaq will not be able to match that, if for no other reason than he doesn't have the stamina he had four years ago. In addition, as strangely as it would have seemed 3 years ago when the Mavs featured a center rotation of Shawn Bradley and Raef Lafrentz, with Dampier and Diop the Mavs are actually one of the best equipped teams to guard Shaq. I look for Shaq to average 24 points and 9 rebounds this series, which won't be enough for the Heat to win.
Wade is a great player, but he and whoever the Heat's third option is on any given day, are not as good as the combination of Ginobili and Parker that the Spurs threw at the Mavs. Look for Dallas to rotate fresh defenders on Wade (Howard, Griffin, Harris, possibly others), and to try to him force to be a jump shooter. The Mavs have the personnel to partially contain the Heat's two stars, or at least to make them work hard.
The key will be if the Heat's older role players (Payton, Walker, Morning) will do better than the Spurs veteran role players, whom the Mavs simply ran off the floor. They'd almost have to do better than Finley, Van Excel, and Horry did against the Mavs, but unless Payton suddenly regains his athleticism of 4 or 5 years ago, they won't be able to do enough.
Unlike the Spurs, who had Bowen (or the Suns with Marion and the Grizzles with Battier) the Heat have no one rumored to be a Dirk-stopper. Dirk should be able to have his biggest series of the playoffs. The media is saying that Haslem will guard Dirk, but they're likely to try Posey on him as well. Dirk should be able to dominate either one, and the Heat shouldn't even have an average defender left to guard Howard.
Mavs in 6.
Technorati tags: Dallas Mavericks Basketball NBA Dirk
posted by Freethinker at 6:47:00 PM
8 Comments:
That's a mighty bold prediction there, cowboy. Since I don't watch enough basketball, I can't really make any educated predictions until after I see the game tonight. Go Mavs!
it will come down to who comes to play, Nowitzki or Wade. With two teams full of role players built around their stars (especially Miami), those stars will have to produce. But at the same time, those role players for Miami played a huge role in their win over the Pistons. Payton had some big games, he's not dead yet. I expect Dallas to win in 7 because, like you said, Shaq doesn't quite have the same stamina as he once did, and it's so difficult for Wade to have 3-4 great games. Whomever wins game 1 wins it all (Dallas won't get lucky for a third straight series if they lose the first game).
last post was me...
Tank, predictions don't need to be educated ones.
Darius, Payton is the one player from Maim that I'm concerned could really pick his game up.
I'm not sure game 1 is that important (that is series deciding). Some team wins game 1, the other team wins game 2 and everyone says whoever wins game 3 wins the series. Then whoever wins game 3 loses game and suddenly it's whoever wins game 5 wins the series.
Well, there's one win.
Yep. Dirk and Howard need to pick it up though.
well, it's been the Dwayne Wade show... Dallas is mentally beaten already, at least they will get the bounce of playing at home now.
Wade's been great, and I think he's gotten more calls in Miami than he should have gotten.
Dirk has been a huge disappointment, the Heat defense has played him better than I expected.
Miami seems to be a worse team on the road; Mavs can still win this.
Post a Comment
<< Home